Garrison, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

209
FXUS63 KBIS 241238
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
638 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous to life-threatening wind chills as low as 50 below
  zero continue through Sunday morning, coldest across the
  north.

- Highs this weekend mostly in the single digits above and below
  zero. Lows tonight around 15 to 30 below.

- Flurries or perhaps a dusting of light snow could develop this
  afternoon through tonight.

- Temperatures favored to warm next week, but could still remain
  below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The forecast remains on track. Current conditions and trends
have been blended in for this update.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Arctic air mass remains entrenched under northwest flow aloft.
The center of the surface high has shifted off to our east, and
there is now some weak warm air advection aloft. Nevertheless,
temperatures have fallen into the teens and 20s below zero, with
a handful of locations at -30 or colder. Wind chills are also
at dangerous to life-threatening values in the 30s and 40s below
this morning. We do anticipate an appreciable warmup this
afternoon compared to yesterday, but it will remain bitterly
cold for most areas with highs range from around 10 below
northeast to 10 above southwest. A broad area of shortwave
troughing is forecast to drop down from the Canadian prairie
provinces later today, with some tangential weaker forcing also
ejecting off the Northern Rockies. Model soundings show a deeply
saturated or at least near-saturated layer with respect to ice,
so we do anticipate the development of flurries or perhaps even
a dusting of light snow as this broad area of synoptic scale
lift pivots through the region this afternoon through tonight.
NBM probabilities for measurable precipitation remain lower than
those from the HREF (around 20 to 40 percent across western and
southern North Dakota) and significantly lower than global
ensembles (around 60 to 90 percent chance along and west of
Highway 83). For now will advertise just low chances for light
snow and flurries, as there is some spatial and timing spread
within the guidance that does produce measurable snow. But think
that the occurrence of at least flurries somewhere at sometime
between this afternoon and late tonight is very likely.

A reinforcing shot of Arctic air is forecast to follow the
shortwave down from Canada later tonight, with another surface
high crossing the region from north to south on Sunday. Another
night of bitterly cold temperatures around 15 to 30 below and
dangerous to life- threatening wind chills as low as 50 below is
in store for tonight. Both the Extreme Cold Warning (north and
east of the Missouri River) and Cold Weather Advisory (south and
west of the river) remain in effect until noon CST Sunday.
However, a 10 mph west to northwest wind and colder high
temperatures mostly in the single digits below zero could keep
wind chills in the 20s and 30s below zero Sunday afternoon,
holding near those values through Sunday night.

By Monday morning, a Pacific warm front is forecast to cross
the region. It will likely take until at least Monday afternoon
to scour out the Arctic air, and a cold front tied to a clipper
moving through Saskatchewan/Manitoba now looks like it could
arrive soon enough to prevent a significant warmup outside of
southwest North Dakota. We are still comfortable with NBM
forecast highs in the teens northeast to 20s southwest on
Monday, but would not be surprised to see a greater contrast in
temperatures going both ways. The main story on Monday could be
windy conditions both in the warm sector and with the cold
frontal passage. Mean low level winds are forecast around 30-40
kts, but afternoon low level lapse rates look very unimpressive.
For now, think a most likely outcome would be for gusts to
around 35 mph on Monday.

For the rest of the upcoming week, ensembles continue to show a
clash between mean western CONUS ridging and eastern CONUS
troughing, with the Northern Plains holding near the baroclinic
zone dividing the Pacific and Arctic air masses. NBM temperature
spread has shrunk for Tuesday, which is now projected to be
around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Monday. The means of the
distributions remain near steady at below normal temperatures
through Thursday, but spread begins to increase drastically over
this time frame. This uncertainty is reflected in ensemble
cluster analysis of 850 mb temperatures, and it may be worth
noting that clusters now exhibit a slight tilt toward a cooler
outcome. NBM temperature distributions finally begin to increase
heading into next weekend. But the spread of the distributions
remains quite large, and their means would still only bring us
back to near normal temperatures for late January. The NBM
maintains a dry forecast for next week, which seems reasonable
at this forecast time range. Clusters do show low to medium
probabilities for measurable precipitation on Wednesday as a
shortwave moves over the baroclinic zone, but timing and
placement uncertainty is evident.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected this morning. Later this afternoon
through this evening, MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop
across much of western and central North Dakota, with IFR
possible in areas from around KDIK to KJMS. Flurries or light
snow could accompany the lower ceilings, with MVFR to perhaps
IFR visibility under falling snow. Confidence in the magnitude
and duration of any visibility restrictions from snow remains
low. The low ceilings and light snow/flurries should clear from
north to south later tonight as a cold front moves down from
Canada. Light winds are expected through the forecast period,
generally southerly through the day and turning northerly
tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Sunday for NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for
NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Hollan
AVIATION...Hollan